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A Near Disaster For Boeing’s 737 Max

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A bear surprised to see a door open on a 737 Max

It’s A Miracle No One Died This Time

On Friday, a hole opened up in the fuselage of a brand new Alaska Air Boeing 737 Max.

Video of the Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max making an emergency landing in Portland after part of the aircraft blew out.

The plane had just taken off and had reached 16,000 feet before returning to the airport.

The aircraft was new, having just been delivered in October. pic.twitter.com/FUNKlyDli9

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 6, 2024

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The Rise and Fall of American Growth

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A thoughtful Sloper recently bought me a new book called The Rise and Fall of American Growth which you can see on Amazon by clicking here. I’ll save myself some typing and just paste a partial description of the book from the publisher:

In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, home appliances, motor vehicles, air travel, air conditioning, and television transformed households and workplaces. With medical advances, life expectancy between 1870 and 1970 grew from forty-five to seventy-two years. Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth provides an in-depth account of this momentous era. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end?

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Revisiting a Losing Market-Neutral Trade

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In a post here in December ("Market Neutral Investing in China's Fast Food Industry"), I mentioned a market neutral trade I had entered going long Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM), the largest fast food operator in China, and shorting Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain, Ltd. (CCSC), a start-up fast food chain in China. I figured the bigger potential there was on the short side.

Reasons I shorted CCSC as part of this trade

  • + Its chart looked weak, with the stock trending down since its IPO last fall
  • + Its valuation looked pricey relative to its earnings, even after adjusting for growth estimates.
  • + Anticipated selling pressure when the 6 month IPO lockup period expired for insiders.

Getting Stopped out for a Loss

I used double digit trailing stops on this trade, and got stopped out of CCSC at $25.38, for a loss of 11.3% on the short side on Jan 4, so I sold out of YUM as well, at $48.21, for a loss of 4.8% on the long side. Total loss of 8% on this market neutral trade. Below is a chart of both stocks from when I entered the trade, on December 2nd, 2010, until when I exited, on January 4th, 2011. 

 

 

Hindsight is 20/20

Had I used wider stops, I might have stayed in the trade long enough to profit from it. Below is a chart of both stocks from when I entered the trade, on December 2nd, 2010, until Monday, May 9th, 2011. Note the selloff at the beginning of March: the company released earnings on March 2nd, missing analysts' estimates.

 

This wouldn't have applied in the case of CCSC, since it doesn't have options traded on it, but a suggestion that has come up recently from a couple of Portfolio Armor users is extending its algorithm to find optimal calls for hedging short positions.

Recall that with Portfolio Armor (available as a web app, and an iOS app) you just enter the symbol of the stock or ETF you’re looking to hedge, the number of shares you own, and the maximum decline you’re willing to risk, (your threshold). Then the app uses an algorithm developed by a finance Ph.D. candidate to sort through and analyze all of the available puts for your position, scanning for the optimal ones to get you the level of protection you want at the lowest cost.

Adding the ability to hedge short positions with optimal calls is something I'm considering adding, if enough users request it. If we do add that functionality, we'll probably raise the price, to offset the development cost, but those who subscribed to the web app beforehand would be grandfathered in at the current cost. I don't know if we'd add the functionality to the iOS app too, but there again, if we do, current users would get the upgrade without paying more.